Oil demand is rebounding from the pandemic, and looks set to grow for at least a few years. But investors, policy makers and even the IEA seem laser-focused on the energy transition, with little time for oil security of supply. With IOCs rethinking strategies, will enough money flow into upstream oil to meet demand and counter declines? Is the world heading inexorably toward a mid-2020s crunch? Or will US shale come to the rescue again? If prices rise, how will industry, consumers and policymakers respond?